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Today is Sep 16, 2019
Kelvin Su
Group Director | Graduated with Engineering (1st Class Honour), NTU
PROPNEX REALTY PTE LTD
CEA Licence No.:
L3008022J / R052258B

kelvinsu.era@gmail.com
Call (+65) 9176 9894 - (+65) 8782 2627
Kingsford Hillview peak Analysis
Property Cycle

Cooling measures








New launches at Hillview near Hillview MRT:




Hillier launch being the 1st new launch condo in the hillview area after years when there are no new launches. (1) The launch starts during the "late bull stage" -Jan 2012 selling 186 units at avg psf $1,259psf. -Sales continue healthy in the 2nd month hitting another 164 units at avg psf $1,341psf. -the 3rd month saw the sales hit 80% sold out of the 528units with avg psf at $1,422psf. - subsequently avg psf shoot up to $1,5xx psf to as high as $1,669 psf. *observe the transaction volume which peg closely with general market movement. *another to observe is when there is transaction and hit certain target of sales, developer will increase price take advantage of the demand. (2) "Early bear stage" starts from last quarter 2013 when there isn't anymore movement for hillier. Price has to drop subsequently in order to move the units. One of reasons that take into effect is the cooling measure in -12 jan 2013, the increase of ABSD. -29 jun 2013 , TDSR not more than 60% when applying for property loan



Kingsford hillview peak is unlucky . They are launched during the "late bull stage" of the Singapore property market in April 2013. (1) developer launch at avg $1,319psf to $1,423 for the 1st 6 months to hit only 24% sales. (2) Sales subsequently moving vy slow with psf running between $1,355 to $1,430psf . (3) New launches start to move in various projects in Singapore after government re-emphasized not relaxing the cooling measures (ie, Citygate, 70 st Patrick, waterfront @ faber fully sold after consistent sales within the past 1 year, and all projects smaller units selling consistently). Developer sense a need to relaunch at lower price to avg $1,2xx to $1,3xx to move the units in mid 2015. That is why the transaction volume started to pick up consistently. March and April 2016 see sales hitting 44 and 36 units at avg psf $1,287 and $1,332 respectively. This is not considering the removal of any cooling measures or changes of policy that could swing the market upward. But in any case, buying property is to make sure it is within the finance means, do not over stretch and make sure to be able to have the holding power to sustain for years. The introduction of 60% TDSR is the main objective of our government initiative. In the past, property investors stretch their financial means that when that is a external factor or crisis affecting loan or etc , they can't finance their properties and leads to a lot of these investors burning their hands.




New launches at Hillview near Hillview MRT by size:




Considering the breakdown unit size to differentiate between the smaller and bigger size unit. Focus on the green color data points for (1001 to 1500sqft) that had seen the transaction moving considering hillier has given hillview peak a good buffer in time of crisis.




Avg psf by volume (is a more accurate gauge to minimize outlier) from 2012 till today:




Between the new launches, ONLY Kingsford Hillview peak has larger 4 bedroom units, hence demand will be over supply in the future for newer product near MRT.

PAST TRANSACTION for the only new 4bedroom stack in hillview:

Psf in 2013 is $1,4xx psf
Psf in 2016 relaunch at about $1298 psf, and since then, the sales has start moving especially with the opening of Downtown Line MRT, and it's going to TOP soon.





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